全球多源海冰密集度融合资料研制试验     

张雷  徐宾  廖志宏  师春香  徐梅  孙玫玲 《气象学报》2021,79(4):703-715

为了发展一套全球多源海冰密集度逐日融合资料,以欧洲气象卫星应用组织（EUMETSAT）海洋海冰应用中心（OSI SAF）海冰密集度数据、中国国家卫星气象中心（NSMC）的MWRI和VIRR全球海冰密集度数据、美国国家冰雪数据中心（NSIDC）的NISE海冰密集度数据、美国国家冰中心（NIC）的IMS北半球海冰数据为观测数据源,以ERA-Interim模式数据为背景场,采用以下方案开展融合试验。首先,对各数据源资料进行质量控制;其次,以OSI SAF海冰密集度数据为基准,采用概率密度函数（PDF）匹配方法订正其他卫星资料的系统误差;然后,根据订正后的误差生成超级观测场;最后,利用STMAS方法将超级观测场和作为背景场的ERA-Interim海冰密集度数据进行融合,生成全球逐日0.25°分辨率海冰密集度融合试验数据。通过与国际广泛使用的OISST、OSTIA海冰密集度数据对比,评估融合试验产品的质量。结果表明:融合方案中的PDF方法通过调整非基准资料的概率密度分布,实现非基准资料和基准资料概率密度分布一致,从而使3种海冰密集度卫星资料系统误差均显著减小;STMAS方法能够将超级观测场和背景场进行有效融合,生成融合试验产品;风云卫星数据的使用提高了融合数据生产的自主可控能力;同时,融合方案考虑了卫星数据源的时效性、获取的稳定性等因素。融合产品与OISST和OSTIA海冰密集度数据的空间分布在南、北极均高度吻合,相关系数均超过0.985,与OISST和OSTIA的偏差分别为?1.170%和0.276%,融合试验产品整体偏差介于两种资料之间,反映了试验产品系统误差较小的良好特性。可见,融合方案能够满足实时业务需要,融合试验产品具有较高的质量。   相似文献   

冰核观测中两种滤膜采样方法的比较     

周德平  张晋广  陈刚  李成龙  洪也  苏航  王扬锋 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(5):49-55

大气冰核观测是研究自然冷云降水和人工影响天气的一项基础性工作,滤膜—扩散云室法是观测冰核浓度的主要方法之一。为检测分析两种滤膜采集方法对冰核观测结果的影响,2011—2015年用自制的大气颗粒物采样器和FA-3型撞击式9级采样器开展了平行采样试验,采集的滤膜样本均在同一静力扩散云室中进行冰核活化显现分析。结果表明：自制采样器较9级采样器观测的冰核浓度高数倍甚至数十倍,但两者随季节和不同气象条件的变化表现出一致的起伏特征。自制采样器适用于对大气中总的冰核浓度分布及理化特征研究;9级采样器适用于对PM₁₀中不同粒径段大气冰核浓度和尺度分布以及理化特征的研究。滤膜法对冰核数量的低估与采样体积成正比,改变采样器气泵的抽气流量和控制采样体积对改进“体积效应”影响均有明显效果。  相似文献   

Testing a proposed new chronology for the Jasmund Glacitectonic Complex (SW Baltic Sea): No indication of incipient deformation during MIS 3     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

Weichselian advances of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet have generated several glacitectonically deformed structures in the southwestern Baltic Sea area. One example is the 100 km² large Jasmund Glacitectonic Complex (JGC), which was formed proglacially and consists of two subparallel-orientated sets of composite ridges that represent a northern and southern structural complex. The two-part morphological structure of the JGC suggests a formation by two ice advances, one approaching from NE and one from SE direction. So far, this divided structure has been assumed to have been formed by short-time ice-front oscillations during an MIS 2 ice advance. However, based on their recently published ice dynamic model for MIS 3 and the available age data from Jasmund, lüthgens et al. (2020) propose a chronological reinterpretation of the JGC development, according to which two distinct ice advances during early and late MIS 3 formed the JGC. In order to test this novel stratigraphical model for the JGC formation, five OSL samples were taken from fluvial and lacustrine deposits at a key section near Glowe (NW Jasmund). The investigated succession is divided into pre-kinematic sediments, deposited before the glacitectonic deformation, and post-kinematic sediments, deposited after the deformation. Our results show that the youngest dated pre-tectonic sediment has a burial age between ∼40 and 34 ka, which rules out a glacitectonic deformation during an early MIS 3 ice advance (∼60–50 ka). In addition, by reviewing the existing age data set, a development of the JGC during an early and late MIS 3 advance of the SIS must be rejected. Instead, our data confirm the genesis of the JGC during MIS 2.  相似文献   

基于Sentinel-1卫星数据的北极西北航道通航适宜性分析     

周雪飞  徐嘉  张绪冰 《冰川冻土》2022,44(1):117-132

北极西北航道对北极资源开发与世界贸易格局有重要影响。针对当前西北航道通航适宜性时空变化分析研究中时空分辨率低、时效性差等问题,利用2015—2019年每年9月及2019年8月1日至9月20日的Sentinel-1 SAR数据,基于k均值非监督分类方法反演了十米级高空间分辨率海冰密集度。通过长时序宏观跟踪和短时序精细分析西北航道全线通航窗口,并以70%的海冰密集度作为阈值,测算了西北航道经过重要海湾及海峡累计不可通航的次数。结果表明：西北航道的航情随冰情而变,通航能力尚不稳定。具体来说,西北航道的冰情呈现东轻西重、南轻北重的格局,不可通航节点个数东少西多、南少北多。2018年9月西北航道通航情况最差,高于可通航阈值的海冰覆盖面积占总航道面积的35.24%,共有10个不可通航节点。2016年和2019年9月的通航情况较好,阿蒙森湾—科罗内申湾—毛德皇后湾—维多利亚海峡—富兰克林海峡—皮尔海峡—巴罗海峡—兰开斯特海峡段航道（航道C）可实现全线通航。进一步通过小尺度时间窗口研究发现,西北航道的最佳通航窗口为8月下旬至9月上旬,期间共出现3条全线通航的航道;最佳通航路线为航道C,其连续通航时间长达30天。  相似文献   

辽东湾红沿河附近海域2017—2018年冬季气温-水温-冰情关系研究     

马玉贤  王玉  於凡  许宁  袁帅  史文奇 《冰川冻土》2022,44(5):1482-1491

辽东湾是我国冰情最严重海域,每年冬季都会受到海冰的显著影响,冰情预测评估可为辽东湾涉海活动提供防冰抗冰的技术依据。建立气温-水温-冰情的相关性,结合便于获取的现场高精度连续气象数据和高精度冰情预测模型,可实现局地小尺度的冰情快速预测评估。基于2017—2018年冬季辽东湾东岸红沿河附近海域实测气象-水温-冰情同步观测数据,结合辽东湾大尺度整体冰情（浮冰面积）,推演局地气温、水温与不同尺度冰情评价参数（浮冰范围与冰厚）的相关关系,提出基于不同气温区间的气温变化规律的冰底热通量选取方法,进而建立适用于辽东湾的气温-水温-冰情评估方法。相关性分析结果显示：观测点气温与水温存在明显相关性;浮冰范围与气象数据存在明显相关性,临界温度为 -5 ℃的累计负气温能很好拟合本年度盛冰期浮冰范围。基于HIGHTSI进行数值模拟后发现：水温与块体积法计算冰底热通量时,冰水间的热传递系数取2.2×10^-5是可行的;水温对冰情的影响表现在海冰冰厚最大值与冰期长短。为弥补辽东湾其他海域因缺少实测海水温度观测数据欠缺、冰底热通量选取不准选取导致的冰情模拟预测评估困难的问题,本文依据水温与气温的相关性,将水温随气温变化划分为结冰区（气温小于-10 ℃时水温维持冰点附近）、过渡区（气温为-10~-5 ℃时水温处于-1.4~-0.4 ℃）、融冰区（气温高于-5 ℃时水温随气温的增大逐渐增大）,进而提出适用于辽东湾所有海域的冰底热通量计算方法和冰情评估方法。  相似文献   

基于现场观测的辽东湾东岸海冰环境基本特征     

马玉贤  许宁  袁帅  刘雪琴  史文奇  周雪  刘永青  陈元 《冰川冻土》2022,44(5):1492-1500

全面获取气-冰-海环境特征数据已成为当前冬季现场观测的重要任务,用于准确、快速开展区域冰情评价预测,以满足海冰防灾减灾工作需求。基于辽东湾东岸鲅鱼圈雷达海冰观测站（15 a）与温坨子附近海域（9 a）的冬季观测数据,对辽东湾东岸的风、水温、海冰时空分布等环境基本特征进行了探讨。对鲅鱼圈站1月和2月4级风（5.5 m·s^-1）以上数据进行分析,发现偏北风自2016年以来呈现由N、NNE、NE向NE转变,偏南风自2016年以来主风向由SSW向WSW转变。对温坨子海冰观测站水温观测数据进行分析,发现水温表现出降温期、平稳期与回温期,降温期发生于12月至次年1月中旬,平稳期发生于1月下旬至2月中旬,回温期发生于2月下旬;当气温低于-10 ℃时,水温基本维持在-1.4 ℃附近,气温处于-10~-5 ℃时,水温基本分布于-1.4~-0.5 ℃区间,气温处于-5~5 ℃时,观测点水温基本分布于-1.4~3 ℃。对鲅鱼圈站与温坨子站能见范围内的逐日海冰分布面积比例进行分析,发现海冰面积呈现增大期、稳定期与减少期,鲅鱼圈站附近12月12日至次年1月9日前后为增大期（对应初冰期）,1月9日前后至2月8日前后为稳定期（对应盛冰期）,2月8日前后至3月15日前后为减少期（对应融冰期）;温坨子站与鲅鱼圈站类似。对鲅鱼圈站与温坨子站附近海域海冰结冰期进行统计,给出了两个站点的平均初冰日、终冰日与结冰期,并与历史数据进行了对比。结合初冰日与终冰日的环境要素分析,对初冰与终冰的规律特征进行了总结,对气候变化背景下的辽东湾冰情评估有着重要意义。  相似文献   

基于Hkr值的北天山冰川侵蚀空间分布特征及其主控因素研究     

姚盼  王杰  林文旺  曾兰华  陈仁容 《冰川冻土》2022,44(4):1260-1269

确定冰川侵蚀的主控因素及其与各影响因素间的相互作用方式,不仅对深入认识冰川侵蚀的物理机制和理解冰川作用区地貌演化具有重要的意义,也是探讨构造、气候、地形间相互关系的根本。然而,以往的学者仅在构造活动略单一的区域研究冰川侵蚀的主控因素,致使对构造的影响认识不足,那么,构造是否是冰川侵蚀的主控因素呢？又是如何作用于冰川侵蚀？北天山第四纪冰川作用规模巨大,留下了丰富的冰川遗迹,其气候与构造条件也多样,因而成为探讨上述问题的理想区域。本文在北天山北坡自西向东选取了7个冰川流域,基于每个流域的Hkr值和冰川侵蚀影响因子的定性定量数据,分析了该区域冰川侵蚀的分布规律及其影响因素。结果表明,北天山各流域冰川侵蚀自西向东有减小趋势,该变化趋势是构造、气候、地形共同作用所致。其中,山顶高度和降水对冰川侵蚀的影响最显著,两者均通过对冰川规模施加作用来控制冰川侵蚀,而构造也可能通过影响顶点高程、积累区面积、冰川规模,进而作用于冰川侵蚀,但是其是否发挥主要作用有待进一步认识。因此,冰川规模可能才是导致北天山各冰川流域侵蚀差异的根本原因。  相似文献   

前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值     

张梦琪  孙建奇  郜永祺 《地学前缘》2022,29(5):401-409

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。  相似文献   

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf     

Tom Bradwell  Derek Fabel  Chris D. Clark  Richard C. Chiverrell  David Small  Rachel K. Smedley  Margot H. Saher  Steven G. Moreton  Dayton Dove  S. Louise Callard  Geoff A. T. Duller  Alicia Medialdea  Mark D. Bateman  Matthew J. Burke  Neil McDonald  Sean Gilgannon  Sally Morgan  David H. Roberts  Colm ó Cofaigh 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):871-933

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.  相似文献   

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation     

Richard Christopher Chiverrell  Geoff Stephen Powell Thomas  Matthew Burke  Alicia Medialdea  Rachel Smedley  Mark Bateman  Chris Clark  Geoffrey A. T. Duller  Derek Fabel  Geraint Jenkins  Xianjiao Ou  Helen Marie Roberts  James Scourse 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):752-779

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.  相似文献